Sunday, May 12, 2013

Friday, October 5, 2012

Crude oil cookie jar

In case you didn't notice, the last three trading days have been a little rough for picking a position for longer than 24hrs. At first (Wednesday) we have a sell of of $4 (pretty much straight down with a 30min pause to add to your short). Then Thursday's trade is an all out buy $3 higher on refinery fire news. Dress code is pants only since the shorts got squeezed out. Sure enough Friday sells 3 dollars lower on better employment data. No volatility just straight linear moves. If crude oil were a person, I would have punched him in the face this week.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Trading VIX

For those seeking alpha, there's a trade out there beginning tomorrow with the S&P vix market. It's been a virtual risk free trade for the past two years. If  you take a look at a Chart you can see that putting on a long vix fence (buy upside calls and selling puts, say, good meaty 13's)  you can pretty much all but guarantee a profitable trade within the next month along with knowing your risk.

You're welcome.

Thursday, August 2, 2012


I was driving out the Hamptons today. Wife and two kids in tow. The traffic was not terrible. I contemplated taking the HOV ,since I clearly qualified entering during rush hour, but I noticed something that reminded me of our current economic situation: Instead of driving in the HOV lane (a municipal/government idea to promote car pooling and economical consumption) in the designated entrances and exits, I watched other cars switching lanes freely to the convenience of the speed they were going. No cops enforcing the HOV law. No dangers, just a whole lot of highway real estate used.

The interesting part of this is that there is a law prohibiting cars from jumping HOV lanes as well as a minimum occupancy requirement, yet who really wants to police such a trivial traffic offense? We pay our police officers to to police, but how punishable is crossing the HOV lanes in reality?

This is a government idea that is supposed to promote traffic efficiency, but in the end no one follows the rules. So we end up with two wasted lanes of highway (four if you include both sides) and no one to admit it may have been a mistake.

Fast forward to today. We are living in a central bank/bailout economy, where we keep throwing money at the problem without getting to the real meat of it. No one to police them while they try to "fix" our current economic issue. And when a central bank passes on yet another bailout the market tanks. What's the definition of insane? Doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result.

No one, especially our government, will admit there is an ideological problem with "bailing out" a true capitalist society, because that would be like admitting the system is a failure (yet a true capitalist society would function more like a Darwinist society where the weakest are allowed to fail) and then there would be no confidence left in the short run. But the question I ask is this:

Is it better to put newspaper over the spilled milk on the floor and cover the problem temporarily, or get down on the ground clean it up and explain the lesson of being more careful?

Maybe it's simpler for me since I'm a parent.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Gold up and away?

This morning's chart set up has gold breaking out of a long term bear trend. I am sure everyone is buying ahead of Bernanke next week.

How many sleepless nights do you think the gold bugs had every time it dipped below $1,570?

Stops to the upside above $1,625

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Poor guy...

Remember kids, if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. 

That's all I really have to say.

Former MF Global Chief Jon Corzine Selling NJ Penthouse

Monday, January 30, 2012

Dave quoted in Financial Times

Our very own Dave Kasouf was the lead in this article in last Friday's Financial Times article about the latest on MF Global. He's so famous! I'm going to steal a lock of his hair and sell it on eBay, or trade it on Craigslist for illicit favors.